Hurricane Dorian

Hurricane Dorian was an extremely powerful and catastrophic tropical cyclone, which became the most intense on record to strike the Bahamas. It is tied with the 1935 Labor Day hurricane and Hurricane Melissa in 2025 for the strongest landfall in the Atlantic basin in terms of maximum sustained winds. It is regarded as the worst natural disaster in the Bahamas' recorded history. With winds peaking at 185 mph (295 km/h), it was also one of the most powerful hurricanes recorded in the Atlantic Ocean in terms of 1-minute sustained winds, and the strongest since Wilma in 2005. Dorian was the fourth named storm, second hurricane, the first major hurricane, and the first Category 5 hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. Dorian struck the Abaco Islands on September 1 with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h), tying with the 1935 Labor Day hurricane and Melissa for the highest wind speeds of an Atlantic hurricane ever recorded at landfall. Dorian went on to strike Grand Bahama at similar intensity, stalling just north of the territory with unrelenting winds for at least 24 hours. The resultant damage to these islands was catastrophic; most structures were flattened or swept to sea, and at least 70,000 people were left homeless. After it ravaged through The Bahamas, Dorian proceeded along the coasts of the Southeastern United States and Atlantic Canada, leaving behind considerable damage and economic losses in those regions.

Dorian developed from a tropical wave on August 24 over the Central Atlantic. The storm moved through the Lesser Antilles and became a hurricane north of the Greater Antilles on August 28. Dorian proceeded to undergo rapid intensification over the following days, before reaching its peak as a Category 5 hurricane with one-minute sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 910 millibars (26.87 inHg) by September 1. It made landfall in The Bahamas in Elbow Cay, just east of Abaco Island, and again on Grand Bahama several hours later, where it remained nearly stationary for the next day or so. After weakening considerably, Dorian began moving northwestward on September 3, parallel to the east coast of Florida. Dwindling in strength, the hurricane turned to the northeast the next day and made landfall on Cape Hatteras at Category 2 intensity on September 6. Dorian transitioned into an extratropical cyclone on September 7, before striking first Nova Scotia and then Newfoundland with hurricane-force winds on the next day. The storm finally dissipated near Greenland on September 10.

From August 26 to August 28, the storm affected several parts of the northernmost Lesser Antilles. Damaging winds primarily affected the Virgin Islands where gusts reached 111 mph (179 km/h). Extensive precautionary measures were taken to mitigate damage, especially in Puerto Rico, where one person died. Elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, impacts from the storm were relatively minor. In preparation for the storm, the states of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia all declared a state of emergency and many coastal counties from Florida to North Carolina issued mandatory evacuation orders. Damage in The Bahamas was catastrophic due to the prolonged and intense storm conditions, including heavy rainfall, high winds and storm surge, with thousands of homes destroyed and at least 77 direct deaths recorded, 74 of which occurred in The Bahamas. The true death toll is unknown, with 245 people still missing as of August 2020. Dorian is the costliest disaster in Bahamian history, estimated to have left behind $3.4 billion (2020 USD) in damage in that country, while causing a total of $5.1 billion in damage overall. Due to the damage and loss of life, the name Dorian was later retired from the Atlantic rotating naming lists by the World Meteorological Organization.

Meteorological history

On August 19, 2019, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) identified a tropical wave—an elongated trough of low air pressure—within a monsoon trough over Guinea and Senegal in western Africa. Convective activity associated with the wave was limited by an abundance of Saharan dust in the region. Propagating west over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, the system remained disorganized for several days. On August 23, a defined area of low pressure consolidated at the surface and thunderstorm activity increased. The system acquired sufficient organized convection to be classified as Tropical Depression Five at 15:00 UTC on August 24. At this time the system was situated 805 mi (1,300 km) east-southeast of Barbados. A deep ridge imparted continued westward movement of the depression, steering it toward the Lesser Antilles. A small cyclone, it soon developed a defined inner core with a 12 mi (18 km) wide eye-like feature. This marked the system's intensification into a tropical storm, at which time it was assigned the name Dorian by the NHC. Thereafter, moderate wind shear and surrounding dry air limited further organization. Rainbands gradually wrapped more around Dorian on August 25–26, though convection remained inconsistent.

Dorian continued moving west and made landfall at 01:00 UTC on August 27 in Barbados, bringing tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain. It then started moving northwestward toward Saint Lucia. At 11:00 UTC of the same day, Dorian made landfall on the island of Saint Lucia as a tropical storm, briefly disrupting the core of the storm, before entering the Caribbean Sea. The storm underwent a center relocation further north, to the west of Martinique, causing the island to experience tropical storm-force winds as well. Dorian had been predicted to travel northwest and pass over or near the Dominican Republic or Puerto Rico, possibly allowing their mountainous terrain to weaken the tropical storm. At that time, dry air and wind shear were expected to prevent Dorian from attaining hurricane status—although just barely. However, Dorian took a more northerly track than expected, causing it to pass to the east of Puerto Rico and hit the US Virgin Islands. On August 28, Dorian intensified into a Category 1 hurricane as it approached the US Virgin Islands, where hurricane-force winds were recorded; at 15:30 UTC that day, Dorian became a hurricane and made landfall in Saint Croix and a few hours later, at 18:00 UTC, Dorian made landfall on Saint Thomas at a slightly higher intensity. However, the hurricane's small size prevented mainland Puerto Rico from experiencing hurricane- or tropical storm-force winds, although this was not the case for the Spanish Virgin Islands.

Once the system moved north past the Virgin Islands, the storm entered a more favorable environment. On the next day, the system started to rapidly intensify, reaching Category 2 status early on August 30. Rapid intensification continued, and the storm eventually reached major hurricane status several hours later, on the same day. This strengthening trend came to a halt for the remainder of the day, but soon resumed. The system continued strengthening, and on August 31, Dorian attained Category 4 major hurricane status. Dorian reached Category 5 intensity on the following day. On the morning of September 1, a dropsonde deployed by a NOAA aircraft measured a wind gust of 176 knots (326 km/h; 203 mph) at the surface. With one-minute sustained winds of 180 mph (285 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 913 mbar (27.0 inHg), the NHC noted that Dorian was the strongest hurricane in modern records to affect the northwestern Bahamas.

At 16:40 UTC on September 1, Dorian made landfall on Great Abaco Island in The Bahamas, with one-minute sustained winds of 185 mph (298 km/h), wind gusts over 220 mph (355 km/h), and a central barometric pressure of 910 millibars (27 inHg), as Dorian reached its peak intensity during landfall. Storm chaser Josh Morgerman observed a pressure of 913.4 mbar (26.97 inHg) in Marsh Harbour. Dorian's forward speed decreased around this time, slowing to a westward crawl of 5 mph (8.0 km/h). At 02:00 UTC on September 2, Dorian made landfall on Grand Bahama near the same intensity, with the same sustained wind speed. Afterward, Dorian's forward speed slowed to just 1 knot (1.2 mph; 1.9 km/h), as the Bermuda High that was steering the storm westward weakened. Later that day, the storm began to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle to the north of Grand Bahama; the Bermuda High to the northeast of Dorian also collapsed, causing Dorian to stall just north of Grand Bahama. Around the same time, the combination of the eyewall replacement cycle and upwelling of cold water caused Dorian to begin weakening, with Dorian dropping to Category 4 status at 15:00 UTC. Due to the absence of steering currents, Dorian stalled north of Grand Bahama for about a day. Dorian subsequently weakened to a Category 2 storm on September 3, before beginning to move northwestward at 15:00 UTC, parallel to the east coast of Florida, with Dorian's wind field expanding during this time.