2025 German federal election

A federal election was held in Germany on 23 February 2025 to elect the 630 members of the 21st Bundestag, down from 736 in 2021 due to reforms in seat distribution. The 2025 election took place seven months ahead of schedule due to the 2024 collapse of the Scholz governing coalition. Following the loss of his majority, the chancellor called and intentionally lost a motion of confidence, which enabled the approval of a new election by the president. The 2025 election was the fourth snap election in post-war German history.

Three opposition parties increased their share of votes in the election, compared with the previous federal election in 2021. The conservative CDU/CSU alliance became the largest group in the Bundestag, with 28.5% of votes. Although this result was well below the 41.5% vote Angela Merkel had achieved in 2013 and its second to worst since 1949, it positioned them to lead the new government. The far-right AfD with 20.8% doubled its share and achieved its best result in nation-wide German elections, moving into second place, without any other party willing to work with them. The socialist Left party, polling well under 5% until January 2025, massively improved within a few weeks to 9%. On the other hand, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a populist splinter from the Left, fell in the polls, and at 4.98% narrowly failed to enter the Bundestag.

The three parties of the formerly governing "Traffic light coalition" all lost support. The centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) lost over nine percentage points and dropped to third rank with just 16.4%, their worst result since 1887. Their remaining junior partner, The Greens, also declined from 15% to 12%, still their second best ever result. The Free Democratic Party (FDP), whose departure from the government precipitated the election, recorded their worst historical result with 4.3%, and lost all representation in the Bundestag, as had previously happened in 2013.

The South Schleswig Voters' Association (SSW), which as a party representing the Danish minority in Schleswig-Holstein is exempt from the 5% threshold, retained their single seat with 76,138 total votes (0.15%). Voter turnout was 82.5%, a six percentage point increase from 2021, and the highest since German reunification. On 9 April 2025, the CDU/CSU and SPD secured a ruling coalition agreement.

The German parliament elected Friedrich Merz as chancellor on 6 May 2025. Earlier the same day, Merz failed to be confirmed chancellor in the first round of voting, thus requiring a second round—a situation unprecedented in Germany's postwar history.

Background

Date assignment

Germany's Basic Law and Federal Election Act provide that federal elections must be held on a Sunday or a national holiday no earlier than 46 and no later than 48 months after the first sitting of a Bundestag unless the Bundestag is dissolved earlier. The 20th and sitting Bundestag held its first sitting on 26 October 2021. Therefore, the next regular election was to be held on a Sunday between 31 August 2025 and 26 October 2025. In August 2024, the Federal Cabinet initially recommended 28 September 2025 as the election date, which was approved by President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

Snap election

Federal elections can be held earlier if the president dissolves the Bundestag and schedules a snap election. They may only do so under two scenarios described by the Basic Law (see also Chancellor of Germany#Election):

1. After a federal election or any other vacancy in the chancellor's office, if the Bundestag fails to elect a chancellor with an absolute majority of its members by the 15th day after the first ballot, the president is free either to appoint the candidate who received a plurality of votes as chancellor or to dissolve the Bundestag (according to Article 63, Section 4).
2. If the chancellor proposes a motion of confidence that fails, they may ask the president to dissolve the Bundestag. The president can grant or deny the chancellor's request (according to Article 68).

In both cases, federal elections would have to be held on a Sunday or national holiday no later than 60 days after the dissolution.

On 6 November 2024, chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed FDP leader Christian Lindner from the incumbent government. He did it during a government crisis, triggering the collapse of the traffic light coalition and leaving the government without a majority of Members of the Bundestag. On the same day, Chancellor Scholz announced he would submit a motion of confidence to hold a snap election. This was initially planned for January 2025 for a late March election but was brought forward after pressure from the opposition.

Scholz submitted a motion of confidence to the Bundestag on 11 December 2024; it was brought to a vote on 16 December. The motion required an absolute majority of 367 yes votes to pass. This was not achieved, with 207 yes votes, 394 no votes, 116 abstentions, and 16 absent or not voting. Of those members who were present and voting, the SPD group unanimously voted for confidence, while all opposition groups except for three members from the AfD voted against confidence. All Green members abstained to ensure the motion would fail without voting against its coalition.

After the vote's failure, Scholz went to Bellevue Palace to meet with President Steinmeier and recommend a dissolution. The governing parties and the CDU/CSU agreed that 23 February 2025 should be the date for the snap election. The president is not obliged to grant a dissolution, and the Basic Law allows him 21 days to decide. The president also has the sole authority to set the election date, though he agreed with the parties' proposal. Steinmeier first held discussions with all party leaders, as he has a constitutional duty to determine whether there is any possible majority in the current Bundestag. On 20 December, Steinmeier's office released a statement confirming that the talks were completed and that there was no possible majority. Steinmeier officially dissolved the Bundestag on 27 December, at the same time setting the election date as 23 February.

Electoral system

Germany has a mixed-member proportional electoral system, allowing representation both of local interests (299 single-member constituencies) and proportions of the vote given at party level. Voters have two votes: the first for an individual constituency representative, and the second for a party list.

First vote

In the first vote, voters indicate their choice of a single candidate to represent their constituency. Results are calculated on the first-past-the-post method, i.e. the candidate receiving the most votes is considered the winner. Previous to the 2025 election, the winner in each constituency was automatically elected to the Bundestag.

Second vote

The second vote is the more significant one as voting for a party, more precisely the state-wide electoral list of that party, contributes to its national popularity share and is decisive for determining the partisan composition of the Bundestag. The number of second votes also determines the share of seats assigned to a state, as seats won by a party are proportionally distributed to each of its state lists.

To participate in the proportional allocation of seats, a party must either get five percent of the nationwide second vote or win three constituencies via first votes to pass the electoral threshold. Parties representing recognized minorities that contest federal elections, currently only the SSW, are exempt from the 5% threshold, but must still be proportionally entitled to a seat, in order to win representation.

Initially, in an overall distribution, all 630 seats (except those won by independent candidates) are allocated proportionally at the federal level to parties clearing the threshold, then subsequently to states, and within each party to its candidates in each state. Both calculations are done using the Webster/Sainte-Laguë method. The number of constituencies each party wins in each state is subtracted from its allocation to arrive at the final number of list seats. The list seats won by each party are allocated using state-wide electoral list closed lists drawn up by each party within each state.

Independent candidates are elected if they receive a plurality of the vote in their constituency. The second votes of ballots on which a winning independent candidate is the first vote are not considered in the proportional distribution of seats to preserve voter equality. However, these votes are considered when determining whether a party has exceeded the 5% threshold.

2023 reform

Before the 2025 election, if a party won constituencies in a state exceeding its proportional entitlement, it could keep the so-called overhang seats, which consequently increase the size of the Bundestag. This problem was compounded by a 2008 ruling by the Federal Constitutional Court, and a subsequent electoral reform, which introduced leveling seats be added for other parties to keep the composition of the Bundestag proportional. Consequently, the 2017 and 2021 elections saw large numbers of additional seats.

After the 2021 election produced a Bundestag with 736 members – making it the largest freely elected parliament in the world – renewed debate began over the system that had been in place since the 2013 election. The Bundestag passed a reform law in March 2023 to fix the size of any future Bundestag at 630 members. It introduced two significant changes: