2025 Canadian federal election

The 2025 Canadian federal election was held on April 28 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. Governor General Mary Simon issued the writs of election on March 23, 2025, after Prime Minister Mark Carney advised her to dissolve Parliament. This was the first election to use a new 343-seat electoral map based on the 2021 census. Key issues of the election campaign included the cost of living, housing, crime, and U.S. tariffs against Canada exports and threats of annexation made by U.S. president Donald Trump.

The Liberal Party won a fourth term, emerging with a minority government for a third consecutive election; it also marked the first time they won the popular vote since 2015, doing so with the highest vote share for any party in a federal election since 1984, and their own highest vote share since 1980. The party's victory came after a substantial rebound in the polls, noted as being "one of the widest on record in any democracy". The election also saw the highest turnout since 1993, with 69.5% of Canada's 28 million eligible voters casting a ballot.

Both the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party improved upon their vote share and seat count from 2021, while the other parties all lost ground; this was the most concentrated the popular vote had been in support of the top two parties since 1958, with over 85% voting Liberal or Conservative. Consequently, the election delivered the New Democratic Party (NDP) their worst result in its history, as it received just over six percent of the popular vote and only won seven seats. As a result, the NDP lost official party status for the first time since 1993. The concentration of support for the two major parties was identified by commentators as marking a polarization in Canadian politics and a shift towards a two-party system.

The result was a reversal of polling trends lasting from mid-2023 to January 2025, which had led to projections of the Conservatives winning in a landslide. Carney's replacement of Justin Trudeau as leader of the Liberal Party played a key role in the turnaround. With his extensive experience as a central banker and his perceived competence, Carney was seen as better equipped to handle the trade war launched by the U.S. and other major economic issues. Two sitting party leaders failed to win re-election to their parliamentary seats: Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party and Jagmeet Singh of the NDP. Poilievre had held his riding of Carleton since 2004, and his defeat was regarded as a significant setback for the Conservatives; he was the first Conservative leader to lose their seat since Kim Campbell in 1993.

Background

The 2021 Canadian federal election, held on September 20, 2021, saw only minor changes from the preceding 2019 election. The incumbent Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, did not win the popular vote and failed to win enough seats to gain a parliamentary majority, winning only a plurality of seats and retaining its status as a minority government. The Conservative Party won the popular vote and continued as the Official Opposition. In March 2022, the Liberals struck a deal with the fourth-place New Democratic Party (NDP), where the latter would provide confidence and supply for the duration of the Parliament in exchange for certain policy concessions. The agreement lasted until September 2024, when the NDP terminated the deal.

One week after the 2021 election, on September 27, Annamie Paul resigned as the Green Party leader, citing lack of party support. The subsequent leadership election was won by former leader Elizabeth May, who ran on a "joint ticket" with Jonathan Pedneault, proposing a co-leadership model; Pedneault was officially named the deputy leader, pending a change to the party's constitution to allow co-leadership. May and Pedneault formally became co-leaders on February 4, 2025.

On February 2, 2022, Conservative leader Erin O'Toole was removed as leader by a caucus vote. Following a leadership election, Pierre Poilievre was elected the new leader of the Conservative Party.

Because of the decennial redrawing of riding boundaries, many MPs were running in districts that had changed.

Government transition

Despite low government approval ratings and a large polling lead for the opposition Conservatives – linked to an ongoing cost of living crisis – Trudeau had insisted he would lead the Liberals into the next general election, and attempt to win a fourth consecutive term. Despite his commitment to seek re-election, pressure on Trudeau to step aside had been mounting from the Liberal caucus after by-election losses in safe Liberal seats.

On December 16, 2024, the government was plunged into a political crisis when finance minister Chrystia Freeland abruptly resigned, only hours before she was set to present the government's fall economic statement. The resignation was seen as a clear rebuke of the prime minister from one of his most loyal allies, and sent shockwaves throughout Canadian politics. Trudeau, who had already faced down a caucus revolt in October, was faced with renewed questions about his leadership. By December 22, 21 Liberal MPs had publicly called for Trudeau to step down. On January 6, 2025, Trudeau announced his intention to resign as prime minister after the party elected his successor. The ensuing leadership election was won by Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada and governor of the Bank of England. Carney was sworn in as prime minister on March 14, becoming the first prime minister to have never held elected public office prior to their appointment.

The crisis occurred against the backdrop of Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 United States presidential election and his threats to impose sweeping tariffs on Canada. Disagreements over how to handle this threat were seen as being a contributor to the Trudeau ministry's collapse. However, the Trump administration's conduct soon sparked a political revival for the Liberals, with the ensuing trade war, along with Trump's threats to annex Canada, greatly reducing the Liberals' polling gap with the Conservatives. By the time Carney was sworn in as prime minister, the polling gap had been eliminated altogether and the Liberals were in the lead, putting them in striking distance of a majority government. The scale of their political turnaround was described by analysts as having "little precedent" in Canadian history.

Date of the election

Under the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election, the election was scheduled to take place on October 20, 2025. However, elections can occur before the scheduled date if the governor general dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister, either for a snap election or after the government loses a vote on a supply bill or a specific motion of no confidence.

On March 20, 2024, the government introduced the Electoral Participation Act, which included an amendment to the Canada Elections Act that would have changed the fixed election date to October 27, 2025, to avoid conflicting with Diwali, as well as municipal elections in Alberta. The bill died on the order paper when the Parliament of Canada was prorogued by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau after he announced his resignation.

On March 23, 2025, after a request from Prime Minister Mark Carney, the Governor General dissolved parliament and called an election for April 28, 2025. The date fixed for the return of the writs by the Chief Electoral Officer was 19 May 2025.

Political parties and standings

The table below lists parties represented in the House of Commons after the 2021 federal election and their current standings. Kevin Vuong, despite being elected as a Liberal, was disavowed by the party too late to alter his affiliation on the ballot and served out his term as an independent.

Electoral system

Canada's electoral system, a "first-past-the-post" system, is formally referred to as a single-member plurality system. Voters select a representative nominated for their electoral district (sometimes referred to as a riding), and the candidate with more votes than any other candidate is elected to a seat in the 343-member House of Commons and represents that riding as its member of parliament (MP). The party that wins the most seats in the House of Commons usually forms government, with that party's leader becoming prime minister. The largest party by seat count that is not the government or part of a governing coalition becomes the Official Opposition. That party receives more finances and privileges than the other opposition parties.

An absolute majority of the votes cast in the last election is not needed to form government and is rarely achieved. Additionally, the government party does not need to obtain a majority of the seats in the House of Commons; under the current multi-party system, it is common for the government party to lack a majority. However, to pass bills domestically, the governing party must have support of a majority of MPs. Without majority support, the government can be defeated, then a new party is named government or an election has to be held.