2024 Venezuelan presidential election

Presidential elections were held in Venezuela on 28 July 2024 to choose a president for a six-year term beginning on 10 January 2025. The election was contentious, with international monitors calling it neither free nor fair, citing the incumbent Maduro administration's control over most institutions and repression of the political opposition before, during, and after the election.

Maduro ran for a third consecutive term, while Edmundo González represented the Unitary Platform (Spanish: Plataforma Unitaria Democrática; PUD), the main opposition political alliance. In June 2023, the Venezuelan government had barred leading candidate María Corina Machado from participating. This move was regarded by the opposition as a violation of political human rights and was condemned by international bodies such as the Organization of American States (OAS), the European Union, and Human Rights Watch, as well as numerous countries.

Academics, news outlets and the opposition provided strong evidence showing that González won the election by a wide margin with the opposition releasing copies of official tally sheets collected by poll watchers from a majority of polling centers showing a landslide victory for González. The National Electoral Council (CNE) announced falsified results claiming a narrow Maduro victory on 29 July; vote tallies were not provided. The Carter Center was unable to verify the CNE's results, asserting the election failed to meet international democratic election standards. The CNE's results were rejected by the OAS, and the United Nations declared that there was "no precedent in contemporary democratic elections" for announcing a winner without providing tabulated results. Analyses by media sources found the CNE results statistically improbable and lacking in credibility. Parallel vote tabulation confirmed the win by González. Political scientist Steven Levitsky called the official results "one of the most egregious electoral frauds in modern Latin American history".

Protests occurred across the country and internationally, as the Maduro administration initiated Operation Tun Tun, a crackdown on dissent. Some world leaders rejected the CNE's claimed results and recognized González as the election winner, while some other countries, including Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and Cuba recognized Maduro as the winner. Maduro did not cede power, and instead asked the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) to audit and approve the results. On 22 August, as anticipated, the TSJ described the CNE's statement of Maduro winning the election as "validated". The supreme court ruling was rejected by the United States, the European Union and ten Latin American countries. An arrest warrant was issued on 2 September for González for the alleged crimes of "usurpation of functions, falsification of public documents, instigation to disobey the law, conspiracy and association", according to Reuters. After seeking asylum in the Spanish Embassy in Caracas, González left for Spain on 7 September. Maduro was sworn in for what would be his third term on 10 January 2025. González flew to Spain where he received his right of asylum.

Background

Democratic backsliding and consolidation of power

The 2024 elections occurred within an authoritarian regime with significant democratic backsliding under Maduro.

Rampant crime, hyperinflation and shortages beginning in 2010 under the presidency of Hugo Chàvez led to a crisis in Venezuela; amid declining popularity of the government, the opposition was elected to the majority in the 2015 National Assembly. Following that election, the lame duck National Assembly, which had an outgoing pro-government majority, packed the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) with Maduro allies. The new tribunal stripped three opposition lawmakers of their assembly seats in 2016, citing alleged "irregularities" in their election, thereby preventing an opposition supermajority which would have been able to challenge Maduro.

The TSJ granted Maduro more powers in 2017. As protests mounted, Maduro called a constituent assembly to rewrite the 1999 Venezuela Constitution created under Hugo Chávez. Over 40 countries stated that they would not recognize the 2017 Constituent National Assembly (ANC). The opposition Democratic Unity Roundtable boycotted the election, saying that the ANC was "a trick to keep [the incumbent ruling party] in power"; thus the coalition dominated by the United Socialist Party of Venezuela won almost all assembly seats. On 8 August 2017, the ANC banned the National Assembly from performing actions that would interfere with the constituent assembly, effectively stripping the elected opposition-majority National Assembly of power.

Scholars have argued that since Maduro assumed the presidency in 2013, the nation has veered towards dictatorship. Maduro "consolidate[d] power" by creating an alternate legislative body (the 2017 ANC) to eliminate the National Assembly and then using a packed Supreme Court to sideline the legislature and bar the major opposition figures from the 2018 Venezuelan presidential election.

2018 election and subsequent presidential crisis

Maduro called for the 2018 presidential election to occur months before the prescribed December date. He was declared the winner in May 2018 after multiple major opposition parties were banned from participating, among other irregularities. The election results were widely disputed both nationally and internationally, and politicians considered him an ineffective dictator. In the months leading up to his 10 January 2019 inauguration, Maduro was pressured by international groups and other nations to step down; this pressure was increased after the new National Assembly of Venezuela was sworn in on 5 January 2019.

Maduro took his official oath on 10 January 2019. That same month, the National Assembly invoked clauses of the 1999 Venezuelan Constitution to install National Assembly Speaker Juan Guaidó as acting president, precipitating the Venezuelan presidential crisis.

By January 2020, efforts led by Guaidó to create a transitional government had been unsuccessful and Maduro continued to control Venezuela's state institutions. In January 2021, the European Union stopped recognizing Guaidó as president, but still did not recognize Maduro as the legitimate president; the European Parliament reaffirmed its recognition of Guaidó as president. After the announcement of regional elections in 2021, Guaidó proposed negotiations with Maduro with a schedule for free and fair elections in exchange for lifting international sanctions.

In December 2022, three of the four main opposition political parties (Justice First, Democratic Action and A New Era) backed and approved a reform to dissolve the interim government and create a commission of five members to manage foreign assets, as deputies sought a united strategy ahead of the 2024 elections, stating that the interim government had failed to achieve its goals.

2020 transitional government proposal

On 31 March 2020, the United States proposed a transitional government that would exclude both Maduro and Guaidó from the presidency. The power-sharing deal provided for elections to be held within the year, and foreign militaries, particularly Cuba and Russia, to leave the country. The US was seeking Maduro's arrest at the time of the announcement. Experts stated that the deal explicitly mentioned who would lead a transitional government, something which stalled previous discussions, and coming shortly after the US indictment of Maduro, might pressure him to peacefully leave power.

Guaidó accepted the proposal, while Venezuela's foreign minister, Jorge Arreaza, rejected it and declared that only the parliamentary election would take place in 2020.

Opposition primaries launched

In November 2022, Diosdado Cabello, vice-president of the PSUV and president of the ANC, insisted that the presidential election be moved forward to the first semester of 2023.

On 16 May 2023, the Unitary Platform announced it would hold a primary to elect a single candidate for the presidential election, the 2023 Unitary Platform presidential primaries, on 22 October 2023. On 24 July 2023, the application period ended, with 14 candidates registered.

Disqualification of Machado and Capriles

On 30 June 2023, the Comptroller General of the Republic of Venezuela announced that former National Assembly member María Corina Machado was disqualified from holding public office for 15 years, claiming she was linked to alleged crimes committed by Juan Guaidó and had supported international sanctions against Venezuela. She would be allowed to participate in the opposition primaries because they were not regulated by Maduro's government. Henrique Capriles was given the same sentence and barred from holding office until 2032. Analysts stated that the accusations were incoherent, as Machado was not a member of the 2015 opposition National Assembly with Guaidó, having been disqualified by the Comptroller's Office, nor had she served in his government. The disqualification was considered illegal and unconstitutional by several jurists, including constitutional lawyer Allan Brewer Carías and the Latin American and Caribbean Network for Democracy.