2024 Syrian opposition offensives

On 27 November 2024, a coalition of Syrian revolutionary factions called the Military Operations Command, led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and supported by allied Turkish-backed groups in the Syrian National Army (SNA), launched an offensive against the Ba'athist regime's armed forces in Idlib, Aleppo and Hama Governorates in Syria. It initially began as a localised offensive targeting towns in the Idlib and Aleppo countryside, later evolving into a nationwide campaign that culminated in the toppling of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

On 29 November 2024, HTS entered Aleppo and captured most of the city, amid the collapse of pro-government forces. The next day, opposition forces made rapid advances, capturing dozens of towns and villages as pro-government forces disintegrated, and advanced toward Hama in central Syria, subsequently capturing it on 5 December. By 6 December, the SDF captured Deir ez-Zor in an offensive east of the Euphrates, while the newly formed Southern Operations Room and Al-Jabal Brigade captured Daraa and Suwayda in an offensive in the south. The HTS advanced further south toward Homs. The American-backed Syrian Free Army (SFA) launched the Palmyra offensive in the south of the country.

On 7 December 2024, Southern Operations Room forces entered the Rif Dimashq Governorate from the south, and came within 10 kilometers of the capital Damascus. Later, opposition forces were reported to have entered the suburbs of the capital. SFA forces moved towards the capital from the south east. By 8 December, they had captured Homs, which effectively cut Assad's forces from Syria's coast. The same day, rebels also captured the capital Damascus, toppling Bashar al-Assad's government and ending the Assad family's 53-year-long rule over the country.

Background

Since the March 2020 Idlib ceasefire agreement, large scale operations ceased between opposition and pro-government forces in Northwestern Syria. However, revolutionary groups based in northwestern Syria prepared for a resumption of hostilities, with HTS in particular strengthening its military capabilities by reforming its structures into a "conventional armed force", improving training, and setting up special forces specializing in raids and night-time operations. According to the Kyiv Post, some Islamist social media accounts said that the Idlib-based rebels received some training and other support by Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence. Meanwhile, the Syrian government suffered from growing corruption, with researcher Charles Lister describing it as the "world's biggest narco-state" whose "corrupt business elite and a powerful network of military commanders, militia leaders and warlords" were held together by drug trade revenue, especially trade of Captagon. Starting in late 2022, HTS forces launched a series of infiltration and sniper attacks on government forces, leading up to the offensive. In retaliation, there was shelling of Idlib Governorate as well as Russian air strikes. Aleppo had been controlled by Bashar al-Assad's government and Iranian-backed militias since the Aleppo offensive in 2016.

According to Abu Hassan al-Hamwi, head of HTS's military wing, the offensive had been planned for a year prior to its launch. Beginning in 2019, HTS developed a military doctrine aimed at transforming loosely organized opposition and jihadist fighters into a conventional military force. The group established specialized military branches, most notably a drone unit that produced reconnaissance, attack, and suicide drones. HTS additionally established coordination with southern Syrian rebels, creating a unified command structure that incorporated leaders from approximately 25 rebel groups, with the strategic objective of encircling Damascus from multiple directions. HTS initiated the offensive partly to disrupt regional powers' diplomatic normalization with the Assad regime and to counter escalating aerial attacks on northwestern Syria. The group determined that Assad's international allies were strategically constrained, with Russia committed to its war in Ukraine and both Iran and Hezbollah engaged in conflict with Israel, presenting a favorable tactical opportunity.

In October 2024, a large mobilization by HTS and government forces was initiated in the Aleppo countryside, as the Syrian rebels reported that they had been preparing for months for a large-scale offensive against government forces within the city of Aleppo. On 26 November 2024, government forces artillery struck the opposition held town of Ariha, killing and injuring 16 civilians.

Offensive

On 27 November 2024, HTS announced that it had launched an offensive dubbed "Deterrence of Aggression" toward pro-government forces in western Aleppo Governorate. The offensive was a response to recent artillery shelling by the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad against rebel-held Idlib, which killed at least 30 civilians.

Opening advances

During the first ten hours of the offensive, HTS captured 20 towns and villages from pro-government forces, including the towns of Urm al-Kubra, Anjara, Urum al-Sughra, Sheikh Aqil, Bara, Ajil, Awijil, al-Hawtah, Tal al-Dabaa, Hayr Darkal, Qubtan al-Jabal, al-Saloum, al-Qasimiyah, Kafr Basin, Hawr, Anaz and Basratoun. In addition, the 46th regiment base of government forces was besieged by the HTS and captured a few hours later. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that 37 Syrian government soldiers and allied militias and 60 fighters from the opposition forces were killed in the clashes. A Russian special forces unit was ambushed by rebels, who later posted photos of a dead Russian soldier and captured equipment. In response, Syrian and Russian forces launched aerial assaults on areas controlled by revolutionary groups. Russian fighters also conducted airstrikes around Atarib, Darat Izza, and surrounding villages, while government forces shelled rebel-controlled Idlib, Ariha, Sarmada and other areas in southern Idlib Governorate.

On 28 November, HTS launched an offensive on the eastern Idlib countryside, capturing the villages of Dadikh, Kafr Batikh and Sheikh Ali as well as a neighborhood in the city of Saraqib. This advance brought them within two kilometers of the M5 highway, a strategic route that had been secured by pro-government forces in 2020. HTS also attacked al-Nayrab's airport located east of Aleppo, where Iranian-backed militants have a presence. In the latter half of the day, HTS captured the villages of Kafr Basin, Arnaz and Al-Zarba in the western Aleppo countryside, and cut off the M5 highway. The Syrian rebels had captured around 40 towns and villages in total by the end of the day.

A Russian airstrike killed fifteen civilians in Atarib in the western Aleppo countryside. Four others were killed in either a Syrian or Russian airstrike in Darat Izza. Iranian state media reported that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Brigadier General Kioumars Pourhashemi, who served as a senior military advisor in Syria, was killed by rebels in Aleppo. An SDF fighter was killed by Turkish drone strike in the north of Raqqah Governorate.

On 29 November, HTS captured the villages of Tal Karatabeen, Abu Qansa, and Al-Talhiya in Idlib countryside and Al-Mansoura, Jab Kas, and Al-Bawabiya in Aleppo countryside. Strong fighting around the town of Saraqib continued. By this point, other Idlib-based Islamist groups were backing the HTS advance, including Ajnad al-Kavkaz, and Liwa al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar. Four civilians were killed and two others were injured by HTS shelling in the al-Hamdaniya neighborhood of Aleppo city. An attack by the SDF was carried near Al-Bab with 15 SNA fighters dying. Seven SNA fighters were killed in a Russian airstrike on a SNA military headquarters in Mare'. Four civilians were also killed in separate Russian airstrikes in Idlib.

Battle of Aleppo

On 29 November, opposition forces launched a large-scale offensive in Aleppo Governorate aimed at capturing the city of Aleppo and surrounding areas. The rapid fall of Aleppo, which had taken the regime four years to capture from rebels in 2016, surprised even HTS leadership. Al-Hamwi later stated "We had a conviction, supported by historical precedent, that 'Damascus cannot fall until Aleppo falls.' The strength of the Syrian revolution was concentrated in the north, and we believed that once Aleppo was liberated, we could move southward toward Damascus."

That day, revolutionaries entered the Hamdaniya and New Aleppo districts of Aleppo city, after carrying out a double suicide attack with two car bombs. HTS-led forces captured five city districts, subsequently reaching the main square and captured parts of four other districts.

In Idlib and Aleppo governorates, revolutionaries captured 50 towns and villages, including the town of Saraqib, Abu al-Duhur and Maarat al-Numan amid the collapse of pro-government forces' defense lines. Pro-government forces retreated from most of the Idlib Governorate, with the exception of Khan Shaykhun and Kafranbel. In Aleppo region, pro-government forces withdrew to Aleppo airport, Maskanah, As Safirah and Khanaser road.

An airstrike, reportedly of Russian origin, killed 16 civilians and injured 20 others in Aleppo city.

Government withdrawal and SDF advances

In the early hours of 30 November, revolutionary forces captured the Citadel of Aleppo, the government headquarters in the city, as well as "more than half of Aleppo city". By morning, revolutionary forces had seized control of most of Aleppo, forcing pro-government troops to retreat toward as-Safirah.