2019 Canadian federal election

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The 2019 Canadian federal election was held on October 21, 2019. Members of the House of Commons were elected to the 43rd Canadian Parliament. In keeping with the maximum four-year term under a 2007 amendment to the Canada Elections Act, the writs of election for the 2019 election were issued by Governor General Julie Payette on September 11, 2019.

With 33.12% of the vote for the Liberal Party, led by incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the 2019 election set, at the time, a record for the lowest vote share for a party that would go on to form a single-party minority government (this record would later be beaten in the subsequent 2021 federal election). The Liberals lost the popular vote to the Conservative Party by one per cent, marking only the second time in Canadian history that a governing party formed a government while receiving less than 35 per cent of the national popular vote, the first time being the inaugural 1867 Canadian federal election after Confederation. It was also the first time since 1979 that the party with the most votes overall did not win the most seats, and the first election since 1926 in which the Liberals won the most seats without receiving the most votes.

The Conservatives, led by Andrew Scheer, won 121 seats and remained the Official Opposition. The Bloc Québécois, led by Yves-François Blanchet, won 32 seats to regain official party status and became the third party for the first time since 2008. The New Democratic Party, led by Jagmeet Singh, won 24 seats, its worst result since 2004. The Green Party, led by Elizabeth May, saw its best election results with three seats and for the first time received over one million votes. The Greens also elected their first MP outside of British Columbia, Jenica Atwin in Fredericton, New Brunswick. Independent MP Jody Wilson-Raybould won her seat and was the first independent to win a seat in over a decade. In their first election, the People's Party failed to win any seats, as leader Maxime Bernier lost his own seat in Beauce, a seat he won as a Conservative in the previous four elections before forming his own party following his unsuccessful bid for the Conservative Party's leadership.

Background

The 2015 federal election resulted in a Liberal majority government headed by Justin Trudeau. The Conservatives became the Official Opposition (with Stephen Harper announcing his resignation as party leader) and the New Democrats (NDP) became the third party. While members of the Bloc Québécois and the Greens were elected to the House, both failed to achieve the required number of MPs—twelve—for official party status. Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe announced his resignation shortly after the election, and was succeeded by Parti Québécois MNA Martine Ouellet. After losing a leadership review, Ouellet announced she would step down as Bloc leader on June 11, 2018, and was succeeded by Yves-François Blanchet on January 17, 2019.

Tom Mulcair was rejected as NDP party leader; he gained only 48% of the vote at the NDP's April 2016 leadership review. The party held a leadership election on October 1, 2017, electing Ontario MPP and the former Deputy Leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party Jagmeet Singh as Mulcair's successor.

Parties and standings

The table below lists parties represented in the House of Commons after the 2015 federal election, and the standings at dissolution.

Bill C-44

Bill C-44 was passed in 2017 and assigned responsibility to the Parliamentary Budget Office to calculate the cost of party platforms for elections; the review was available in the 2019 election. The Parliamentary Budget Office had a $500,000 budget for costing party platforms for this election, but announced it would only review a party platform at the request of the authoring party. It also conducted confidential assessments of independent and party platform proposals preceding the election campaign. The service was also available to members of parliament representing a party without official party status in the House of Commons, like Elizabeth May's Green Party.

Electoral reform

In the lead-up to the 2015 federal election, Trudeau committed to replacing first-past-the-post voting, but the first-past-the-post electoral system was ultimately retained.

Following the Liberal victory, the Special Committee on Electoral Reform was formed, and in December 2016 recommended a proportional electoral system be introduced following a national referendum. The report was criticized by Minister of Democratic Institutions Maryam Monsef for not recommending a specific electoral system, though the committee argued that it had fulfilled its mandate. In February 2017, Trudeau issued a mandate to newly-appointed Minister of Democratic Institutions Karina Gould which dropped the issue, on the grounds that "A clear preference for a new electoral system, let alone a consensus, has not emerged."

Assessment of Trudeau's government

In July 2019, an independent academically edited study, Assessing Justin Trudeau's Liberal Government: 353 Promises and a Mandate for Change, was published by Les Presses de l'Université Laval, finding that Justin Trudeau's government kept 92 per cent of pledges, when complete and partial pledges were added together, while the Harper government kept 85 per cent of complete and partial pledges. When only completed, realized pledges were calculated, Harper's government, in their last year, kept 77 per cent of promises while the Liberal government kept 53.5 per cent. The book notes that Harper's pledges tended towards transactional pledges which target sub-populations while Trudeau's government's promises were transformative—ambitious pledges the Liberals took while they were the third-place party. Trudeau's government, according to the researchers, and the "last Harper government had the highest rates of follow-through on their campaign promises of any Canadian government over the last 35 years."

Election spending

According to Elections Canada rules, third parties are allowed to spend $1,023,400 in the pre-election period between June 30 and the start of the election campaign. They can spend an additional $511,700 during the election campaign.

Reimbursements for political parties and candidates

Political parties receive a reimbursement for 50 per cent of their election expenses during the writ period. Similarly, electoral district associations receive a reimbursement of 60 per cent of their election expenses during the writ period. Both reimbursements are publicly funded.

Registered third parties

A person or group must register as a third party immediately after incurring expenses totaling $500 or more on regulated activities that take place during the pre-election period or election period. The regulated activities are partisan activities (that promote parties or candidates), election surveys, partisan advertising and election advertising. Furthermore, to be a third party you must be :

an individual who is a Canadian citizen, a permanent resident or lives in Canada
a corporation that carries on business in Canada, or
a group, as long as a person responsible for the group is a Canadian citizen, a permanent resident or lives in Canada.

One cannot spend money or use their resources to influence Canadian elections if they are a foreign third party.

There are also strict limits on expenses related to regulated activities, and specific limits that can be incurred to promote or oppose the election of one or more candidates in a particular electoral district. Registered third parties are subject to an election advertising expenses limit of $1,023,400 in the pre-election period, of which $10,234 can be spent in a given electoral district and $511,700 during the election period. Of that amount, no more than $4,386 can be spent to promote or oppose the election of one or more candidates in a particular electoral district.