2017 German federal election

8 min read

A federal election was held in Germany on 24 September 2017 to elect the members of the 19th Bundestag. At stake were at least 598 seats in the Bundestag, as well as 111 overhang and leveling seats determined thereafter.

The Christian Democratic Union of Germany and the Christian Social Union of Bavaria (CDU/CSU), led by incumbent chancellor Angela Merkel, won the highest percentage of the vote with 33%, though it suffered a large swing against it of more than 8%. The Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) achieved its second worst result since post-war Germany at 21%, undercut only by its 2025 result. Alternative for Germany (AfD), which was previously unrepresented in the Bundestag, became the third party in the Bundestag with 12.6% of the vote, whilst the Free Democratic Party (FDP) won 10.7% of the vote and returned to the Bundestag after losing all their seats in 2013. It was the first time since 1957 that a party to the political right of the CDU/CSU gained seats in the Bundestag. The other parties to achieve representation in the Bundestag were the Left and Alliance 90/The Greens, each close to 9% of the vote. In the 709 member Bundestag, a majority is 355 and the CDU/CSU won 246 seats (200 CDU and 46 CSU), the SPD 153, the AfD 94, the FDP 80, The Left 69, and the Greens 67.

For the second consecutive occasion, the CDU/CSU reached a coalition agreement with the SPD to form a grand coalition, the fourth in post-war German history, and the new government took office on 14 March 2018. The agreement came after a failed attempt by the CDU/CSU to enter into a Jamaica coalition with the Greens and the FDP, which the latter pulled out of citing irreconcilable differences between the parties on migration and energy policy. This had been by far the longest government formation in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany, as it was the first time a proposed coalition formation negotiation had collapsed and had been replaced by another coalition.

Background

At the 2013 German federal election, the incumbent government composed of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU), the Christian Social Union of Bavaria (CSU), and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) had failed to maintain a majority of seats. The FDP failed to get over 5% of the vote in 2013, denying the party seats in the Bundestag for the first time in its history. In contrast, the CDU/CSU obtained their best result since 1990, with nearly 42% of the vote and just 5 seats short of an absolute majority. The CDU/CSU then successfully negotiated with the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) to form a grand coalition for the third time.

In January 2017, party leader Sigmar Gabriel recommended Martin Schulz, the former president of the European Parliament, as their leader and chancellor candidate. The party substantially increased its support as a result; however, the CDU afterward regained its lead, with polls generally showing a 13–16% lead over the SPD.

Date

German law requires that a new Bundestag shall be elected on a Sunday or on a nationwide holiday between 46 and 48 months after the last Bundestag's first sitting (Basic Law Article 39 Section 1). In January 2017, then-President Joachim Gauck scheduled the election for 24 September 2017.

After the election, the 19th Bundestag had to hold its first sitting within 30 days. Until that first sitting, the members of the 18th Bundestag remained in office (Basic Law Article 39 Section 1 and 2).

Electoral system

Germany uses the mixed-member proportional representation system, a system of proportional representation combined with elements of first-past-the-post voting. The Bundestag has 598 nominal members, elected for a four-year term; these seats are distributed between the sixteen German states in proportion to the states' population eligible to vote.

Every elector has two votes: a constituency and a list vote. 299 members are elected in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post, based just on the first votes. The second votes are used to produce an overall proportional result in the states and then in the Bundestag. Seats are allocated using the Sainte-Laguë method. If a party wins fewer constituency seats in a state than its second votes would entitle it to, it receives additional seats from the relevant state list. Parties can file lists in each single state under certain conditions, such as a fixed number of supporting signatures. Parties can receive second votes only in those states in which they have successfully filed a state list.

If a party by winning single-member constituencies in one state receives more seats than it would be entitled to according to its second vote share in that state (overhang seats), the other parties receive compensation seats. Owing to this provision, the Bundestag usually has more than 598 members. The 18th Bundestag, for example, started with 631 seats: 598 regular and 33 overhang and compensation seats. Overhang seats are calculated at the state level, so many more seats are added to balance this out among the different states, adding more seats than would be needed to compensate for overhang at the national level in order to avoid negative vote weight.

In order to qualify for seats based on the party-list vote share, a party must either win three single-member constituencies or exceed a threshold of 5% of the second votes nationwide. If a party only wins one or two single-member constituencies and fails to get at least 5% of the second votes, it keeps the single-member seat(s), but other parties that accomplish at least one of the two threshold conditions receive compensation seats. During the 2002 German federal election, the PDS won only 4.0% of the party-list votes nationwide but won two constituencies in the state of Berlin. The same applies if an independent candidate wins a single-member constituency, which has not happened since 1949. In the 2013 German federal election, the FDP only won 4.8% of party-list votes; this cost it all of its seats in the Bundestag.

If a voter has cast a first vote for a successful independent candidate or a successful candidate whose party failed to qualify for proportional representation, their second vote does not count to determine proportional representation; however, it does count to determine whether the elected party has exceeded the five percent hurdle.

Parties representing recognized national minorities, such as Danes, Frisians, Sorbs, and Romani people, are exempt from the 5% threshold but normally only run in state elections.

Parties and leaders

Altogether 38 parties have managed to get on the ballot in at least one state and can therefore (theoretically) earn proportional representation in the Bundestag. Furthermore, there are several independent candidates, running for a single-member constituency. Below are the major parties that are likely to either exceed the threshold of 5% second votes or to win single-member constituencies (first votes).

Traditionally, the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) and the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU), which refer to each other as sister parties, do not compete against each other. The CSU only contests elections in Bavaria, while the CDU contests elections in the other fifteen states. Although these parties have some differences, such as the CSU's opposition to the previous government's immigration policies, the CDU and CSU share the same basic political aims and are allowed by the Regulations of the Bundestag to join into one parliamentary Fraktion (a parliamentary group composed of at least 5% of the members of the Bundestag, entitled to specific rights in parliament) after the elections, as they do in the form of the CDU/CSU group.

As the CDU/CSU and the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) were likely to win the most seats in the election, their leading candidates are referred to as chancellor candidates; however, this does not mean that the new Bundestag is legally bound to elect one of them as chancellor.

Opinion polling

Results

The CDU/CSU and the SPD remained the two largest parties in the Bundestag, but both received a significantly lower proportion of the vote than they did in the 2013 German federal election.

The AfD received enough votes to enter the Bundestag for the first time, taking 12.6 percent of the vote—more than double the five percent threshold required to qualify for full parliamentary status. It also won three constituency seats, which would have qualified it for proportionally-elected seats in any event.

The FDP returned to the Bundestag with 10.7 percent of the vote. Despite improving their results slightly and thus gaining a few more seats, the Left and the Greens remained the two smallest parties in parliament.